2019年土地科学研究重点进展评述及2020年展望——土地经济分报告

研究目的：梳理并比较2019年国内外土地经济领域研究进展和研究重点，展望未来研究方向。研究方法：文献分析法。研究结果：2019年，国内研究以实践探索为主，集中于土地供给对房价的影响、土地流转意愿、产权与农户投资、征地的福利效应和宅基地制度改革；国外研究则在理论和实践两个方面有所突破，关注影响城市地价的因素、发展中国家土地市场发展、产权与女性福利、土地改革的发展方向等。研究结论：2019年，土地经济在基础理论和实践探索方面取得了新进展，仍需加强对国内外相关研究和土地经济发展规律的总结；2020年将重点关注土地经济领域的基础理论研究、土地经营权流转及权益实现、承包地和宅基地“三权分置”、共享理念下的土地收益分配机制、城乡建设用地市场建设、低效用地再开发与利益协调机制、土地产权制度改革和确权登记等问题。     

家族涉入方式的差异如何影响企业双元创新意愿?

文章以2012-2017 年中国上市家族企业的数据，基于社会情感财富理论，分析了家族在股权与管理层两种不同涉入方式下的战略偏好与目标导向，进而探究出其对于双元创新的影响，并结合产品市场竞争环境下的情形，进一步分析了市场竞争的加剧对于股权涉入和管理层涉入与双元创新关系的调节效应。结果发现：家族在股权涉入与利用式创新呈显著的正相关，但与开发式创新呈负相关，而家族管理层涉入与利用式创新和开发式创新均呈现显著的正相关；产品市场环境的竞争能够加强家族股权涉入与利用式创新的正向关系和家族管理层涉入与开发式创新的正向关系。     

Dependent relationships between Chinese commodity markets and the international financial market: Evidence from quantile time-frequency analysis

In this article, the quantile time–frequency method is utilized to study the dependence of Chinese commodities on the international financial market. The impacts of risk management and diversification benefits of different portfolios are examined by calculating the reduction in downside risk. Moreover, we estimate and compare Sharpe Ratios (SRs) and Generalized Sharpe Ratios (GSRs) based on the frequencies of the investigated portfolios. Our empirical results reveal a strong asymmetric response from Chinese commodity markets. Specifically, we find that gold is a safe-haven asset, and due to negative correlations found at lower quantiles in medium and long term, an increase in the USD index damages bull commodity markets but boosts bear conditions under long-term investments, and negative (positive) tail correlations with interest rates (IRs) in bull (bear) markets are observed. It is proven that WTI can decrease short-run risks while USD and GOLD are more efficient in the diversification of downside risk. Adding international commodities may not improve the returns of Chinese commodities at given risk levels in the short and medium term through SRs and GSRs. In brief, investors should consider these dependence structures and modes of risk management in terms of time and frequency.     

关于新经济形势下我国工商管理的现状分析

随着我国市场经济机制改革范围与规模的不断扩大,工商管理部门的各项管理工作内容发生了一定的变化,随之产生了许多的问题。新经济形势下,工商管理部门应该从我国市场经济发展现状出发,探寻更有效地解决对策,进一步完善工商管理手段。论文主要对我国新经济形势下工商管理的现状进行分析,并对其中存在的一些问题进行思考,分析解决对策,希望能够改善我国工商管理部门的管理效果。     

Exploring the nexus between bank market power and exports

Although the literature underlines the importance of finance in international trade, no prior study has examined the causal links between market power in banking and export performance. Using a world sample over the 1997-2010 period, and accounting for both observed and unobserved country heterogeneity, we find a positive effect of bank market power on exports, especially in high-income countries. We also document that this export-enhancing effect is more potent in informationally opaque markets. Our findings accord with information hypothesis which suggests that market power in banking induces stronger bank-firm relationships which can generate benefits for both borrowers and lenders. Policy interventions should, therefore, promote the supply of relationship lending as a means to mitigate informational asymmetries in the export market.     

市场竞争不完全与企业内部工资差距*——基于产品与劳动力市场融合视角的分析

理解工资差距的形成机制是在新时期破解发展不平衡不充分问题，进而实现共享发展的关键。本文从产品与劳动力市场竞争不完全相融合的视角，扩展了中国企业内部技能员工与非技能员工工资差距形成机制的研究，兼论消除竞争不完全的效率提高。基于中国企业数据并在统一的框架下构建市场竞争不完全的测算指标，本文发现：中国的市场化改革并不必然带来收入差距的扩大，不完全的市场化改革形成的产品与劳动力市场竞争不完全才是引发企业内部收入差距的重要原因。当存在市场竞争不完全时，企业会将产品市场势力扩展到劳动力市场，形成劳动力市场竞争不完全对工资差距的更大影响。这意味着单一的市场化改革不能有效缓解收入差距，只有产品与劳动力市场的同步改革才能达到最优的政策效果。中国的市场化改革可以在初次分配中通过发挥市场机制兼顾效率与公平。     

Monetary Policy Transmission with Interbank Market Fragmentation

This paper shows how interbank market fragmentation disrupts the transmission of monetary policy. Fragmentation is the fact that banks, depending on their country of location, have different probabilities of default on their interbank borrowings. Once fragmentation is introduced into standard theoretical models of monetary policy implementation, excess liquidity arises endogenously. This leads short-term interest rates to depart from the central bank policy rates. Using data on monetary policy operations, I show that this mechanism has been at work in the euro area since 2008. The model is used to analyze conventional and unconventional monetary policy measures.     

Testing for cointegration with threshold effect between unemployment and stock prices

Under the dominant role of a belief function, Farmer argues that the stock market is the Granger cause of the unemployment rate, which implies that the natural rate hypothesis is an outdated idea. This article provides some new empirical evidence supporting this view using threshold cointegration and asymmetric error correction models. The results show that these models can assess asymmetric dynamics between unemployment and the stock market. Moreover, regime switches of the momentum threshold autoregressive adjustment specification are highly consistent with recessions in the US economy during the last 60 years.